Monday, June 27, 2005

Juan Cole comments on Iran's elections

I wish Juan Cole would not waste his breath making comparisons between Bush and AN. It's exhausting... I'm exhausted from these arguments...

And I don't know how much he really knows about what goes on here and what AN will or will not do...

The fact of the matter is this: AN ran a compelling campaign in the one-week between the first and second rounds of the election. All of the other candidates pledged their votes to Hashemi which just made AN look more appealing to Iranians who do not trust the establishment.

Only time will tell what will happen here.

Informed Comment: All that said, it is probably true that there was some ballot stuffing by Ahmadinejad supporters. It was alleged by clerical moderate Karrubi, and it is plausible. These presidential elections are the least free and fair since the early 1990s, though all along there has been a problem of the exclusion and vetting of candidates by the clerics. On the other hand, it seems undeniable that Ahmadinejad's campaign struck a chord with many Iranians tired of corruption and economic stagnation. He may well have won the second round even without those 'extra' ballots.

Thanks to Diana for pointing me in this direction.


Siroos said...

Here's how I see it. AN won the 2nd round because:

1- The core loyalists who number some 7 million voters were split, they probably made up 20~25 percent of AN's share.
2- The economic rift has widen during the Reformists' rule, accounting for some 30~40 percent of his votes.
3- The clerics are distrusted to run the presidency, that captured some 20~30 percent of the vote.
4- Some want the regime to fall and see AN as a catalyst of their cause, that could well sort out to some 5~10 percent of his "support".
5- Other categories for 5~10 percent.

Those who voted for Rafsanjani were:
1- The loyalists, accounting for 35~40 percent of his support.
2- The middle-class voters, making up another 40~45.
3- The rich who have benefited from the econ policies of the last 16 years, numbering some 15~20 percent.
4- Others for 5~10 percent.

I'm still certain that Reformists can win the next city council elections if they offer a single slate of candidates for each riding.

ET said...

Siroos: you said it: "single slate." The reformists need to learn to speak with one strong voice. (I am not saying that dissent and disagreement should be ignored. Not at all. What I am saying is the there seems to be no strong, clear voice among the reformers. It confuses the issue.)

assigned reader said...

Have you heard about the rumour of unhappy love affair of Condy Rice and a Ghazvini Iranian student when she was in college, as the root of her animosity toward Iran? It's quite a funny story and perhaps K can explain to you the delicate connotation of the guy being a Ghazvini among all other Iranian ethnicities!


ذهن سیال said...

I'm glad to see you've stablished a commenting , and you ping your weblog in blogrolling sometimes! It's very important to ping.

ET said...

assigned reader, I have also heard a few limericks about rice and her qazvini... As I am sure you have...