Hope, Votes & Bullets

Hope, Votes & Bullets

We have been working our asses off in a book that features the work of bloggers, writers, and others whose lives were effected by what happened in Iran in 2009. Today, the book was delivered. Here is an internet preview. We'll let you know when it goes on sale. For those of you who facebook, be sure to "like" us over on Facebook.

Debunking the Leverret's and their dated view of Iran

There may be more than one way to stop Iran, but is there any way to stop the folly on NYT's op-ed page?

OK, there is so much wrong with the Leverett's op-ed piece in the New York Times that I didn't even know where to start. So I went through the article expressing my dismay at its content almost paragraph by paragraph. Forgive my ranting and grammatical errors.

THE Islamic Republic of Iran is not about to implode. Nevertheless, the misguided idea that it may do so is becoming enshrined as conventional wisdom in Washington.

The Islamic Republic is imploding. It’s been imploding for years. The system is cracking apart under the great force of a population that wants simple things: the freedom to kiss in public; the freedom to make fun of their president and their religious figures; the freedom to surf the Internet. These may seem like trivialities, but when you live in a society like Iran’s where all are restricted and where offenders can be harshly punished, they gain importance.

For President Obama, this misconception provides a bit of cover; it helps obscure his failure to follow up on his campaign promises about engaging Iran with any serious, strategically grounded proposals. Meanwhile, those who have never supported diplomatic engagement with Iran are now pushing the idea that the Tehran government might collapse to support their arguments for military strikes against Iranian nuclear targets and adopting “regime change” as the ultimate goal of America’s Iran policy.

I have been for engagement for years. But there is no more room for engagement. We needed a president willing to engage with Iran ten years ago. This regime does not want to be engaged, they want to be isolated. The regime will never negotiate in good faith. They have proven this time and time again. Any negotiation with the US will be a charade at best.

We now know that there really is a huge population willing to be talk with us. While the regime may not fall today or tomorrow, it will fall. And when it does, I hope that my government has chosen to be on the right side of history.

When 3 million people in Tehran dared to take to the streets on June 15th , we entered another phase of history. Any one of us who has spent time in Iran knew what a watershed moment that was. And when I write dared, I mean dared. There is no one in Iran who is naïve enough not to know what kind of personal risks demonstrating creates. Those risks have become even greater since the initial demonstrations. State sanctioned rape, torture, and the threat of execution are very real.

Let’s start with the most recent events. On Dec. 27, large crowds poured into the streets of cities across Iran to commemorate the Shiite holy day of Ashura; this coincided with mourning observances for a revered cleric, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who had died a week earlier. Protesters used the occasion to gather in Tehran and elsewhere, setting off clashes with security forces.

Important events, no doubt. But assertions that the Islamic Republic is now imploding in the fashion of the shah’s regime in 1979 do not hold up to even the most minimal scrutiny. Antigovernment Iranian Web sites claim there were “tens of thousands” of Ashura protesters; others in Iran say there were 2,000 to 4,000. Whichever estimate is more accurate, one thing we do know is that much of Iranian society was upset by the protesters using a sacred day to make a political statement.
The writers show how little they know about Iranians and about the situation. There was an incredible amount of security on the streets of cities all over Iran. Shots were fired into the crowd early in the day. I invite them to play a thought game: how many people would have turned out had there been a minimal security presence. I also invite the authors to remember that there was no call for organized opposition either at the funeral of Montazeri or on Ashura.

Vastly more Iranians took to the streets on Dec. 30, in demonstrations organized by the government to show support for the Islamic Republic (one Web site that opposed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s re-election in June estimated the crowds at one million people). Photographs and video clips lend considerable plausibility to this estimate — meaning this was possibly the largest crowd in the streets of Tehran since Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s funeral in 1989. In its wake, even President Ahmadinejad’s principal challenger in last June’s presidential election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, felt compelled to acknowledge the “unacceptable radicalism” of some Ashura protesters.

Pulease. There is no way a pro-government demonstration can ever be valid when the right to opposition demonstration does not exist. I invite the authors to remember that no one claims that there are no pro-government factions in Iran. Of course there are. There are millions of people dependent on the government for aid and work. The fact is, many of the demonstrators were paid up to 200,000 tumans each. (OK, this is hearsay from a friend who knows people who got paid). It was a day off, for God’s sake. Children and civil servants were bused in as were dependent families.

The focus in the West on the antigovernment demonstrations has blinded many to an inconvenient but inescapable truth: the Iranians who used Ashura to make a political protest do not represent anything close to a majority. Those who talk so confidently about an “opposition” in Iran as the vanguard for a new revolution should be made to answer three tough questions: First, what does this opposition want? Second, who leads it? Third, through what process will this opposition displace the government in Tehran?

In the case of the 1979 revolutionaries, the answers to these questions were clear. They wanted to oust the American-backed regime of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi and to replace it with an Islamic republic. Everyone knew who led the revolution: Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who despite living in exile in Paris could mobilize huge crowds in Iran simply by sending cassette tapes into the country. While supporters disagreed about the revolution’s long-term agenda, Khomeini’s ideas were well known from his writings and public statements. After the shah’s departure, Khomeini returned to Iran with a draft constitution for the new political order in hand. As a result, the basic structure of the Islamic Republic was set up remarkably quickly.

Wow. What a simplistic view. I am not an expert on the revolution, but even I know that this is wrong. Many in Iran were fighting for a communist state, others for a socialist state, others for a Marxist state. They decided to unite behind Khomeini and were indeed shocked by his later policies. In fact, there were two years of relative freedom before the Islamic state cracked down and showed its true colors.

Beyond expressing inchoate discontent, what does the current “opposition” want? It is no longer championing Mr. Mousavi’s presidential candidacy; Mr. Mousavi himself has now redefined his agenda as “national reconciliation.” Some protesters seem to want expanded personal freedoms and interaction with the rest of the world, but have no comprehensive agenda. Others — who have received considerable Western press coverage — have taken to calling for the Islamic Republic’s replacement with an (ostensibly secular) “Iranian Republic.” But University of Maryland polling after the election and popular reaction to the Ashura protests suggest that most Iranians are unmoved, if not repelled, by calls for the Islamic Republic’s abolition With Mr. Mousavi increasingly marginalized, who else might lead this supposed revolution? Surely not Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who became a leading figure in the protests after last summer’s election. Yes, he is an accomplished political actor, is considered a “founding father” of the state and heads the Assembly of Experts, a body that can replace the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader. But Mr. Rafsanjani lost his 2005 bid to regain the presidency in a landslide to Mr. Ahmadinejad, and has shown no inclination to spur the masses to bring down the system he helped create.

Iranians do not want to go back to the beginning that is what scares them about revolution. They want reform of their system. Evolution, not revolution. Unfortunately, this regime has shown that it will not allow that.

Nor will Mohammad Khatami, the reformist elected president in 1997, lead the charge; in 1999, at the height of his popularity, he publicly disowned widespread student demonstrations protesting the closing of a newspaper that had supported his administration.

Many of the Westerners who see the opposition displacing the Islamic Republic emphasize the potential for unrest during Shiite mourning rituals, which take place at three-, seven- and 40-day intervals after a person’s death. During the final months of the shah’s rule, his opponents used mourning rituals held for demonstrators killed by security forces to catalyze further protests. But does this mean that a steady stream of mourning rituals for fallen protesters today will set off a similarly escalating spiral of protests, eventually sweeping away Iran’s political order?

That is highly unlikely. First, Ayatollah Montazeri had unique standing in the Islamic Republic’s history; it is not surprising that the coincidence of his seven-day observance with the Ashura observation would have drawn crowds. His 40-day observance — which will fall on Jan. 29 — and the early February commemoration of the 1979 revolution might also encourage public activism. But there is nothing in the Islamic Republic’s history to support projections that future mourning rituals for those killed in the Ashura protests will elicit similar attention.

For example, in late 1998 four prominent intellectuals were assassinated, allegedly by state intelligence officers, prompting considerable public outrage. Yet the mourning rituals for the victims did not prompt large-scale protests. In 1999, nationwide student protests were violently suppressed, with at least five people killed and 1,200 detained. Once again, though, the mourning dates for those who died did not generate significant new demonstrations. Likewise, after the presidential election in June, none of the deaths associated with security force action — even that of Neda Agha-Soltan, the young woman whose murder became a cause célèbre of the YouTube age — resulted in further unrest.

Once again, I ask, have the writers been paying attention? It’s 2010, not 1998. The regime knows the mourning ritual protest well and has been cracking down on funerals and public mourning. This opposition cannot use the same playbook that the first Islamic revolution used. They have to be more creative. They are using different actions to show dissent. It’s more clever and subtle than a few mourning demonstrations.

In keeping with this pattern, the seven-day mourning observances for those killed in the Ashura protests generated no significant demonstrations in Iran. Clearly, comparisons of the Ashura protests to the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, projecting a cascade of monumental consequences to follow, are fanciful. The Islamic Republic will continue to be Iran’s government. And, even if there were changes in some top leadership positions — such as the replacement of Mr. Ahmadinejad as president by Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Parliament, as some Westerners speculate — this would not fundamentally change Iran’s approach on regional politics, its nuclear program and other matters of concern.

The Obama administration’s half-hearted efforts at diplomacy with Tehran have given engagement a bad name. As a result, support for more coercive options is building across the American political spectrum. The president will do a real disservice to American interests if he waits in vain for Iranian political dynamics to “solve” the problems with his Iran policy.

Then he should not wait in vain, he should show support for the grassroots civil rights movement in Iran.

As a model, the president would do well to look to China. Since President Richard Nixon’s opening there (which took place amid the Cultural Revolution), successive American administrations have been wise enough not to let political conflict — whether among the ruling elite or between the state and the public, as in the Tiananmen Square protests and ethnic separatism in Xinjiang — divert Washington from sustained, strategic engagement with Beijing. President Obama needs to begin displaying similar statesmanship in his approach to Iran.

Iran is not China and never will be China. China is home to one-quarter of the world’s population and owns much of the US debt. Face it, we have no leverage in China. Three million people in Iran took to the streets on June 15th. More than 1% of Iran’s total population demonstrated together, took risks together. This movement is far from dead. Just because the authors do not know the names of its future leaders does not mean that they do not exist.

UPDATED with some links:

Reza Akhlaghiwrites about why this movement does not have obvious leaders:

Traumatized by their exposure to the unmasked face of their rulers and subsequently emboldened by the above grand detachment, Iranians feel reinvigorated and confident of their ability to confront Iran’s weakened theocracy and its multilayered security forces. Organizationally, the struggle in Iran has a completely flat structure with no central figurehead. With a traumatized mind but reinvigorated determination, Iranians appear to be on a path to chart a new role for them in the 21^st century. And they appear unyielding in charting this new role based on recognition of and respect for human dignity without dependence on heroic figures. 

There is more than one way to stop Iran

I doubt that the NYT will publish our letter to the editor about the recent op-ed piece by Alan Kuperman, so I am publishing it here.

Dear Editors:

Alan J. Kuperman writes that military action is the last hope for preventing Iran’s nuclear ambitions. His comment that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad reneged his offer of a nuclear deal because of pressure from political opponents is a misinterpretation of the complex politics within the regime itself.

The opposition in Iran, as well as much of its population, does not want the West to negotiate with the Ahmadinejad government because they believe that it is illegitimate and that a nuclear deal would strengthen its position both domestically and internationally. The fact that for years the regime has sent inconsistent messages to nuclear negotiators is more a symptom of a deep rift within its own power structure than the result of opposition criticism.

We believe that a military strike would strengthen this regime, not weaken it. We also believe that it has been baiting the West for years now, knowing full well that it is losing the support of its population. It seeks a repeat of Iraq’s invasion of Iran, which unintentionally united the population behind the revolutionary regime.

If a democratic Iranian government were to come to power, the first things it is likely to do would be to 1) seek legitimacy in the international community and 2) look for ways to improve its flailing economy. A nuclear agreement offers both. The nuclear program is a huge financial drain and noncompliance with UN resolutions is preventing Iran from engaging with the world.

Sitting tight and allowing the population of Iran to express their own views is the best deterrent to a nuclear armed Iran. Bombing Iran now, when its population has taken to the streets in such great numbers to express their distrust of the current regime, would be a gift to Ahmadinejad and his ilk.



Tori Egherman and Kamran Ashtary

The Funeral of Montazeri and the Strength of Resistence

For the four years I spent in Iran, a dominant question from the “Western Street” was a variation of “Why don’t the world’s Muslims go to the streets to protest bombings?” The question presumes, of course, that the non-Muslim West knows all there is to know about the conversations, debates, and opinions of those in the mainly closed societies dominated by a Muslim population.

Meanwhile, I heard consistent condemnations of violence (of all types) from middle class and poor Iranians. Perhaps when you have seen the effects of war and terror on your own family and friends, you are much less likely to wish for its renewal.

On June 15, 3 million Iranians in Tehran went onto the streets because their hopes for peaceful and gradual reform of their government were so cruelly dashed by the blatantly fraudulent election results. Their individual courage was buoyed by the courage shown by others.

Yesterday in Qom, hundreds of thousands attended the funeral of Ali Montazeri, a grand ayatollah who had consistently spoken up for civil rights, the separation of state and religion, and against state-sponsored violence. They did this despite the risk of arrest and reprisals. Mourners went with knowledge of the brutal rapes of prisoners in Kharizak Prison, the torture and beatings and psychological anguish inflicted upon those in custody, and the random violence visited on demonstrators and passersby alike. They went with their eyes open and with hopes for freedom.

The only thing that can stop them in their quest for freedom now would be an attack on Iran from outside forces. The Iranian regime is doing everything it can to bait Israel and the West. It’s the schoolyard bully sticking out its tongue and begging for a punch in the gut. Wouldn't it just be glorious to defend oneself rather than to be the aggressor? There is nothing the regime wants more than an outside attack. Restraint would do more to end their reign then anything else. Let’s finally allow the Iranian people decide their own future and allow them to play out their long struggle for real freedom and real civil rights.

MORE:
MideastYouth.com's translation of Montazeri's declaration of citizenship for Baha'is

Enduring American's optimistic analysis of the turnout for the funeral of Montazeri in Qom

Great photos and summary at the NY Times

My article at ex Ponto about the Iranian summer of opposition

One of the last interviews with Montazeri from Radio Zamaneh

About Iran's constitutional revolution

Finally, a quote from an interview Montazeri did with Radio Zamaneh in 2008:

Reporter: But in religious teachings it is often said that oppression will not last. Do you think that this oppression will last?

Montazeri: After all, no government is everlasting. “The state may endure heresy but it will not endure oppression.” [Quote from Mohammad]

Reporter: Apparently not, but it has endured so far.

Montazeri: No, it shall not endure. We are too impatient; it will not endure. It is in my writings that the Mandate of the Jurist, as these gentlemen are representing it, began with Mr. Khomeini and ended with this gentleman. After him [Khamenei], the Mandate of the Jurist will not have any credibility...

The Iranian Protester: an Inspired Choice?

If you could go back in time to 1955, the year that Rosa Parks became a symbol for the Civil Rights movement by refusing to give up her seat in the front of a Montgomery, Alabama bus to a white person, and present the civil rights protesters of Montgomery as Time’s Person of the Year, wouldn’t you? Not Rosa Parks, mind you, but the groups that backed her, and that she was part of: the Women's Political Council, the NAACP, and the African-American churches where Martin Luther King was a minister. That protest, while not the first or the last in a long struggle for civil rights in the United States, galvanized not only the city of Montgomery, but an entire nation. That year Time put forth Harlow Curtice, an auto executive. Obviously the auto has undeniably shaped American but he was hardly an inspiring choice. In a year when American auto companies went bust, and Americans inaugurated an African-American president it’s interesting to look back at 1955.


This year, one of Time's nominees for person of the year is the Iranian Protester. With more than half a million votes, s/he is a crowd pleaser. I think this is an inspired choice for Time. Those of us who have friends and family in Iran know how much courage it takes to go out on to the streets of Iran to protest the government, and we also know how many different types of people marched against the election results and how much danger they faced. The actions of the protesters changed the way the entire world views Iran and how Iranians view each other.

Change and reform is not always so exciting and sexy. For both the protesters in Iran and Barack Obama, who is the second most popular choice for person of the year, the inspiring moments are waning and the hard work is beginning.

Thanks to Mana for inspiring this line of thought in a late night Skype chat.
Cross-posted at United4Iran.org.

The train to the future in Iran

A friend who just returned from Iran and a visit to family and friends, “Everywhere I went, the message was clear. ‘We are happy with the support of Iranians all over the world, but we do not want their political advice. It is their support we want, it gives us strength.’”

One of her friends, who is a teacher, had this to say about young people in Iran:

“It’s as though the young people are on a train that has already left for the future. They don’t care about the past. Only the future. They like Mousavi because he is not charismatic and because he knows that he is on their train. He said, ‘I follow you,’ not the other way around. They do not want leaders right now. They are not idealistic. They say, ‘Rafsanjani, if you are on our train, fine. If not, stay on the platform.’ For them, Iran is already moving towards a new future.”

Cross-posted at United4iran.

Letters to the President: thoughts on the documentary

Sunday, I saw the movie, Letters to the President, which is one of the movies we are going to be showing at the 12-12 Studio /K event in Amsterdam. It was heartbreaking and entertaining and not at all what I expected. The blurb made me feel like I was going to see something vaguely supportive of Ahmadinejad’s policies, but that’s not the story I saw in the movie at all. It was a much more powerful critique of Ahmadinejad's economic policies because it allowed the story to unfold without taking sides.

After the movie Kamran spoke, I got into a bit of a tiff with someone who wanted to lecture me about the October Surprise and America’s responsibility for the Iran-Iraq war, and we met up with a friend who had just returned from Iran. She grew up in a village not so different from the villages Ahmadinejad traveled through during the course of the film. She told us what one of her cousins said, “This regime has turned us into beggars.” Our friend went on to explain, it makes them beg for a yearly subsidy of about $50 a year that no longer even covers the cost of two kilos of meat: that’s how much prices have increased in the past couple of years.

One of the other speakers, Nikita Shabazi, claimed that Ahmadinejad’s regime brought more people out of poverty than any other, which is why she would have voted for him had she been dragged kicking and screaming to the polling booth. She quoted The Brookings Institute as her source for this data. Here is what I find when I go the Brookings Institute for information:

Significantly, during the first two years of the Ahmadinejad Administration (2005-06) inequality worsened in both rural and urban areas, possibly because higher inflation hurt those below the median income level more than those above it. This is not so much an indication that Ahmadinejad was insincere in promising redistribution but how difficult it is to redistribute income without fundamental changes in the country’s distribution of earning power (wealth and human capital) and political power, which determines access to government transfers from oil rent.

The author goes on to show a steady decline in poverty, since its high in 1988. This is an achievement that can hardly be attributed to the Ahmadinejad presidency.

If you are in Amsterdam, please join us for the 12-12 event. Petr Lom will be there to discuss his movie, along with many others.

A Message from an American Family to your Khanavadeh

I hope that people in Iran will be able to see this video, I uploaded the smallest version available. If you'd like to see it in higher quality, check out the youTube link or the Vimeo link.

The struggle for justice and civil rights is a long and difficult one. Good luck...

Making People Disappear: Erasing Karroubi and Mousavi

The struggle of man against power is the struggle of memory against forgetting.
- Milan Kundera in The Book of Laughter and Forgetting

Today, the Iranian regime has announced that the names of Mousavi and Karroubi can no longer be printed in Iranian newspapers. (Story in Persian via voteforian.com)

I can't help thinking of the dramatic scene in the Ten Commandments when Pharaoh says, "Let the name of Moses be stricken from every book and tablet." Or Milan Kundera's amazing short story The Lost Letters, that tells the story of the end of the Prague Spring by introducing us to Vladimir Clementis, who was erased from Soviet history after being charged with "conspiring with the enemy." He is the man with the camera in the photo on the left. The photo on the right shows the retouched version with Clementis erased and replaced with a wall. According to Kundera's story, that's his hat on the head of the man speaking at the microphone, Klement Gottwald:

Four years later, Clementis was charged with treason and hanged. The propaganda section immediately made him vanish from history and, of course, from all photographs. Ever since, Gottwald has been alone on the balcony. Where Clementis stood, there is only the bare palace wall. Nothing remains of Clementis but the fur hat on Gottwald's head.

We are now faced with a terrifying situation in Iran: the prospect of Stalinist purges coinciding with the rise of Iran's shadowy Qods Force (Jerusalem force) to positions of very public power.

I hope that I am wrong.

---

BTW, the images are from the amazing book by Alain Jaubert: Making People Disappear

The arrest, beating, and interrogation of Farhad M.

Report from Farhad M., who was imprisoned from July 9-27,2009
Finglish text below

On the 18th of Tir (July 9), I was walking not far from Fatemi street. The street was busy, but no one was chanting at that time. It was about 5:30 when two guys in plainclothes approached me from either side. It was interesting that at that moment I had no sense of being part of a demonstration and was just walking normally in the street. Still, I was nabbed and put into a car and left there until about 9 pm. Everyone in the car was blindfolded the whole time, and then we were driven somewhere. Three days later, I figured out that we had been driven to Motahari Street. There we were randomly assigned to an interrogator. My interrogation went on until 1 am, but I was not asked any questions. I was beaten with a cable and with other things without being asked a single question. Unfortunately, I had things in my backpack that made things worse for me: films of demonstrations on my mobile phone and a notebook of writing for my weblog. After three days, I was transferred to Evin. Others were sent to Kahrizak. I was lucky to be sent to Evin where I was kept in solitary for one week. Twice a day, I met with an interrogator. They did everything to get me to confess. To demonstrate to me that they had no belief in anything, they even burnt the Koran in front of me.



When I was put in the cell with others, I understood that what happened to be was much better than what happened to the others. I was not raped. Among us there were some whose colons had been ripped because of rape.

In any case, I understood that all my conversations during the past three months had been recorded, and that they had everything. When they arrest someone and get their telephone number, they look at all of their email, all of their facebook activity, and all of their weblog activity. Because I had political posts on facebook, in my weblog, and in private correspondence, the accusations in my file are extremely serious: breaching national security and plans to overthrow the government, for which the worst punishment is execution. If you confess you get a lighter sentence, but still you have to have patience and wait for your court date, which has not been announced.

Barkhi az goftehaye yeki az zendanian havadese pas az entekhabate 22 khordad be name Farhad M. (zaman dastgiri 88/04/18 zaman-e azadi be gheide vasighe pishaz zaman-e dadgah: 88/05/05):

dar rooze 18 e tir nazdik be kheiabane fatemi dar hale ghadam zadan boodan. khiaboon shologh bood vali too oon moghe kasi shoar nemidad. hodoode saate 5:30 bood ke 2 nafar lebas shakhsi be samte man oomadan va az do taraf mano gereftan. jaleb inja bood ke too oon moghe man aslan halate yek tazahorahi nadashtam va kheili mamooli dashtam rah miraftam vali be har hal mano be samte ye machine bordam ke ta hodoode saat 9 oonja boodim baad cheshme hamaye oonayi ke too machin boodan ro bastan va be jayi raftim ke man baad 3 rooz fahmidam ke samte khaiboone motahari boode. oonja har nafar be toore tasadofi ye bazjoo barash entekhab mishod. bazjooyi man ta saate 1:00 tool keshid ke albate amalan az man hata soali porside nemishod balke faghat ba batoom o cabl o harchize dige yi kotat mikhordam be doone inke soalli beporsan. motaasefane chiz hayi tooye koole poshti e man bood ke ozamo badtar kard mese filmaye ke az tazahoram tooye mobilam bood va hata ye daftarche az dastneveshte haye weblogam. baad az 3 rooz ke oonja boodim be evin montaghel shodam albate bazia ro be kahrizak bordan vali man joze afrade khosh shanse boodam va be evin raftam. oonja yek hafteye too enferadi boodam ke roozi yeki 2 bar bazjoo be soragham mioomadam. oona baraye eteraf gereftam harkari mikardan. baraye inke neshun bedan be hich chiz eteghad nadaran va hich chiz barashum mohem nist ghoran jeloom pare mikardan. vaghty varede band shodam va kasaye dige ro ham didam motavajeh shodam raftari ke ba man shode joze behtarin ha boode chon be man tajavoze jensi nashod vali beine ma kasayi oonja boodan ke dar asare shedate hamalate tajavoze jensi dochare paregi roode shode boodan.


be har hal oonja fahmidam ke tamame mokalemate afrad ta 3 mahe ghabl zapt mishe va hamaro daran. faghat zamani ke adam dastgir mishe va shomareye adam ro be dast miraran hameye ina va hata tamame email ha, safahate facebook va weblog kamalen chech mishe. man be dalile dashtane matalebe siasi facebook, weblogam va mokalemate poshte tell etehamati too parvandam daram ke kheili sangine: ekhtelal dar nazm va amniate omoomi va eghteshashgari, talash baraye bar andazi nezam va ... . badtarin hokmi ke mitooni baraye in jorm ha vojood dashte bashe edame ke albate dar soorate ezhare nedamat va pashimani anjam nemishe vali be har hal bayad ta rooze dadgah ka hanooz ham elem nashode baraye hokm sabr konam.




Cross-posted at Vote for Iran

False confessions, biting satire, Facebook roundup

Long overdue review of Facebook posts. I have been working hard on the United 4 Iran event and Vote for Iran for awhile now and neglecting this blog.



"We tried velvet, match revolution... excuse me I can't read this... cartoon by Nik Ahang Kowsar"

A few weeks ago I went to a lecture by the author of Torture and Democracy, Darius Rejali. (Link to 90-minute lecture on google video) I was one of a handful of people for what was a fascinating discussion. (I first became interested in Rejali's work because of his discussion of taarof in his earlier book, not because I am somehow obsessed with torture.) He made several points including: a) torture does not work to elicit the truth often enough to be called even remotely effective and b) it is surprisingly difficult to get people to make false confessions. They will withstand quite a bit of pain before they will lie.

Anyone who has been following events in Iran knows that beating and torture has been a part of the incarceration of many political detainees. False confessions have been part and parcel of the Islamic regime since its inception. This time around, people in Iran have been sabotaging state television broadcasts through coordinated power outages. Nobel prize winner, Shirin Ebadi has called for people to turn off their televisions instead of watching the lies spread by Iranian state tv. Demonstrators have chanted in favor of those on trial, and no one, save the most gullible, believes that the confessions are even remotely based in fact. Friends have been sharing articles about and images from the trials, including this one:

Be a Hero: Unted4Iran, July 25

This is my first ever youTube upload created with the help of the amazing united4iran-amsterdam all volunteer team!

Green Brief

Josh Shahryar's newest Green Brief:

Protests / Unrest

1. Mir Hossein Mousavi has endorsed his protesters’ tactic of causing massive black-outs. The Iranian Government has equated the tactic to sabotage, but protesters have used it as a non-violent means to defy the government.



2. Neda Aga-Soltan’s family will be congregating at her grave site on the 40th day after her death on July 30, 2009 (the 40th day after a person’s death is traditionally the most essential day of mourning for Muslims). No prior announcements will be made - however, the family said they will welcome anyone who may want to partake in Neda’s bereavement.





3. There are calls for demonstrations tomorrow to commemorate the deaths of protesters killed on June 20th. It has not been confirmed whether or not it has the backing of any opposition leaders.





4. Italian fashion designer, Guillermo Mariotto, wore a shirt that said “Neda Alive” (in green writing) during Haute Couture. All the models presenting his newest creations also wore green wristbands in solidarity with the Green Movement in Iran. Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5KhkCJ2nYc





5. Archbishop Bishop Desmund Tutu – a Nobel Peace Prize winner and South African human rights activist – has announced that he too will be joining the Global Day of Action in support of the Green Movement. Other prominent Iranian and international personalities including Shirin Ebadi, Jody Williams, Betty Williams, Mairead Maguire, Adolfo Perez Esquivel, Rigoberta Menchu Tum, Dariush, and Simin Behbahani. Details on the event can be found here: http://united4iran.org/





6. Noam Chomsky – an eminent American philosopher, linguist, author and lecturer who is 81 years old – has announced that he will partake in the hunger strike in support of the Green Movement in New York. The hunger strike is reportedly being held from July 22-25, and will encompass many important Iranian and international figures.





Opposition

7. The grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini, Sayed Hassan Khomeini, has reportedly left the country. Reports indicate he left the country after being pressured by the government to attend Ahmadinejad’s Inauguration Ceremony - in order to provide the government with much needed legitimacy.





8. Mousavi had a meeting with families of detainees today, where he made several statements:
* He announced that the Green Movement was a peaceful movement, BUT that it was ready to make sacrifices should the need arise.





o He asked the government to ensure freedom of speech. He claimed that it would foster a calm environment in the country – a much better alternative to the current atmosphere of fear created by the extensive use of security forces.





o He stated “The Iranian Nation had matured and that the use of pre-1979 tactics wouldn’t be enough to silence it,” and “The Nation had been reborn and was going to defend its achievements.” He condemned the on-going arrests in the country and called it a “National issue – one that would not solve the government’s problems.”





o He called it “An insult to the Iranian Nation to suggest that foreigners had orchestrated the post-election protests in Iran.” He also criticized the government for defending the arrests of peaceful protesters and called it unjust and cruel.





o He added that, “NO ONE in the international community was going to believe the lies the government was spreading with forced confessions from detainees.” Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami have been holding regular meetings with the families of detainees during the past three weeks.





9. Supporters of Mousavi in Eastern Azerbaijan Province held a meeting Sunday night and released a statement in support of Mousavi. Hundreds of prominent members of society including politicians, human rights activists and university professors attended the meeting.





10. Press TV quoted Mousavi as saying that he had “spent nearly $3.5 million US dollars on his campaign,” and that “Mahdi Karroubi had spent roughly the same amount.”





In a rare break from the government, Press TV’s printed:

“According to Mousavi, Iran needs what he called a ‘free media’ to reverse the growing ‘appeal of foreign media’ which he claimed is a side effect of the ‘lack of press freedoms’ and the national broadcaster's ‘mistaken approach.”

The report also accused protesters of turning to violence and claimed that the Guardian Council had authenticated the elections after ‘launching an extensive probe’ of examining the complaints from the defeated candidates.

Government / International

11. Ali Motaherri – a representative of Tehran in the Iranian Parliament – criticized Ayatollah Yazdi’s statements that questioned Rafsanjani’s sermon on Friday. Motaherri said, “A regime’s legitimacy was only guaranteed by people’s support.”





12. Khamenei issued harsh words today to ‘Iran’s Elite.’ He said, “The Elite should watch their words and actions carefully, because they are facing a test.” He added, “Failing the test would mean that not only would they lose their positions within the regime, but also lose their credibility and become pariahs.” Although no names were mentioned, many say his speech was directed at Rafsanjani – for creating insecurity and disorder in the country. Khamenei declared, “The Iranian Nation would hate anyone who participated in such actions.” He called the “creation of violence the biggest sin.”





13. President-Select Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s office has asked people who want to help the country to come forward and offer their services. According to his office, the government was looking for people to help the president’s administration at different levels and that a committee will soon be formed to recruit such people.





Arrested / Released / Killed

14. Partially-confirmed reports from Evin Prison indicate that one protester was tortured for days in order to extort a confession. After all torture tactics failed, a doctor was brought in to examine the detainee who was found to be deaf and mute. He was later released. Other reports from Evin Prison suggest a new torture tactic: hanging detainees’ upside-down for hours, and sometimes the entire day.





15. Mohammad Kamrani’s body was laid to rest today at Beheshte Zahra Cemetery. He was one of the protesters who was detained and tortured severely. He was transferred to Tehran’s Mehr Hospital unconscious and shackled. He never regained consciousness, and later died.




16. It is now confirmed that Hamid and Puran Ebrahimnezhad – who have been in detention since their arrest – were in fact arrested on July 7, 2009. They were reportedly beaten while being hauled away.





17. On a positive note, detained political activist Mehdi Khazali has been released from Evin Prison. In a statement released today, families of political prisoners asked the government, yet again, to “promptly release all prisoners and stop the violent repression of the populace at the hands of security forces.” Their statement also thanked Rafsanjani for taking a bold stand against the continued detention of political prisoners and peaceful protesters.



Media

18. A leading Iranian Cleric – Hojatoleslam Seyed Mehdi Tabatabai - criticized Ahmadinejad’s statements (against his opponents right after the election) in a televised interview on IRIB. He said, “Ahmadinejad should have immediately called for dialogue with his opponents and should NOT have subjected them to ridicule.” He added, “The post-election violence was caused by hostility stemming from the blatant ridicule.” It should be noted that this is one of the very FEW instances where Iranian media has allowed criticism of Ahmadinejad to be broadcasted on IRIB.



Note: The Green Briefs are a daily report that is compiled using sources on twitter, Iranian websites and other media outlets. Verification of most news items cannot be obtained using regular mainstream media standards; however, they have been as authenticated as possible given the current ban on most foreign media outlets in Iran.

July 16th on Facebook: "Open your eyes, Sohrab! Your mother is devastated by your picture."

This has been a week of heartbreak. Families discovered that loved ones had been killed, beaten, and abused, and a plane on its way to Yerevan from Tehran crashed 16 minutes after take-off. For many the crash just seemed to pile heartache upon heartache. Anyone who has ever been depressed and experienced calamity knows that when people say, "It can't get any worse," it can.

It's also been a week of rumors and confined hope as people buzz about a planned compromise, speculate on strange twists and turns, and hear that Rafsanjani just may be giving the sermon at Friday prayers with Mousavi and Karoubi in attendance. I've tried to summarize more than today's postings on Facebook, but frankly I have not made a dent in the backlog.

"How quickly you've grown in these 25 days that your mother has been going door to door looking for you," said the poem, posted on Norooznews. "Open your eyes, Sohrab! Your mother is devastated by your picture."

The biggest story of the week is the heartbreaking one of Sohrab Aarabi, the nineteen year old who disappeared on June 15th, the day of the first mass demonstration after the election results.



Sohrab Aarabi

After a week in which we heard that a young man had died from beatings in custody and that the family was being told to keep quiet or risk not having his body returned, Sohrab Aarabi's mother has decided to speak out about the death of her son. (We do not know, however, if Sohrab's mother was ever told to keep quiet about her son's death.) Friends are sharing videos posted on youTube that show his funeral and her grief. One friend wrote, "That's my mother 27 years ago." We see the mourners chanting, "Allah-o Akbar," with their cell phones raised in the air to record the funeral. His mother shouts about the cowardice of the men who killed her son. Earlier in the video, we see her on one of her daily trips to Evin to search for her son. She brought his photo and asked for help finding him.

There is news of Rafsanjani's return to leading Friday prayers in Iran. This will be his first public appearance since the election results were announced and there is much anticipation of what he will say. Twittering activists are calling for chants of Hashemi, Hashemi throughout the sermon to demonstrate support.

In its summary of events in Iran,
Enduring America has reported that Keyhan editors have been called to court to answer to charges of disseminating lies.



Taraneh: Arrested at the Ghoba Mosque in Tehran

Over at Words, we read of the horrible abuse against those arrested.

On Friday July 19, a large group of mourners gathered at the Ghoba mosque in Tehran to await a speech about the martyrs of the post-election protests by presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi. According to one Iranian blog, 28-year-old Taraneh Mousavi was one of a group of people that was arrested by plainclothesed security forces for attending the gathering.

Taraneh, whose first name is Persian for “song”, disappeared into arrest.

Weeks later, according to the blog, her mother received an anonymous call from a government agent saying that her daughter has been hospitalized in Imam Khomeini Hospital in the city of Karaj, just north of Tehran — hospitalized for “rupturing of her womb and anus in… an unfortunate accident”.

When Taraneh’s family went to the hospital to find her, they were told she was not there.

Cross posted at Vote for Iran

"Soft Reform, Non-Violent Change"

I have been interviewing people about their experiences before and after the June 12th elections in Iran. The interviews are long, but I will post some highlights here. This first interview was with a 52-year old teacher who I am calling Shirin. I learned a lot during the interviews. They provide a personal perspective to the events that many of us have been caught up in. So, without further introduction:

Shirin, 52, teacher of 7-12 year olds

The Decision to Vote



Photo from Reuters

Before the campaign really began, I thought that it would be better to boycott than to vote. It was my feeling that we shouldn’t vote. I had a lot of discussions about this with my friends and family and came to the conclusion that it was important to vote and to vote for Mousavi. I want soft reform and changes that are non-violent.

Election Day



Photo by Kamran Jebreili

Everyone at the polling station was so careful about writing clearly. Still, you might not know, but Ahmadinejad’s code was “44” and Mousavi’s order in the list was number 4. The difference between the code and the numbering was not clear. We thought this was done on purpose so that if people wrote in the number 4 instead of Mousavi’s code, which was 77, it could be changed easily to 44. I said to the poll workers, "My son has his Master’s and even he is confused by the difference between the code and the numbering. Why do we have to write the code at all?" The poll worker said, "You’re right, ma’am (khanum). Just write in the name of the candidate you support." Still I put lines on either side of the code so that nothing could be added to it.

At 2:30, the poll workers announced that they were closing the polling station for lunch. The people waiting in line argued with them saying, "You cannot close both doors. If you close both doors then we will think that you are changing our votes." After several minutes of discussion, the poll workers agreed to keep one door open.

I stayed up all night watching the results come in. I could not believe it. Since I do not trust state tv, I watched VOA. It was so strange that they announced the results so quickly. What really surprised me was how few votes Karoubi received. I asked myself, how could Karoubi get so few votes?

When they announced that Ahmadinejad was the winner, I couldn’t stand up. My legs were shaking. I thought, maybe a lot of people made a mistake with the code and that the computer only read the code, not the name. They are supposed to look at both and both need to coordinate. I just didn’t know what to think.

The next day, BBC and VOA were asking the same question: why wasn’t the number of blank or unreadable ballots announced? That put pressure on the government to announce the number of unreadable ballots.

Demonstration, June 15: The Monday after the Elections



Photo from UPI Photos

On Monday, we went out to the demonstration wearing all black. State television reported that the demonstration was cancelled, but we went anyway. Me, my son, my daughter. From Enghelab to Azadi, it was completely packed. I am not just talking about the streets, but there were people on every inch of ground. We were chanting, [Note from me: it rhymes in Persian, sounds way better!] Where are those 63%, Liar?

People were coming from three different directions. The chanting only took place on our way to Azadi. Once we got there, we were completely silent. The Basiji were moving through the crowds. My nephew kicked one to get back at them for beating him the night before.

One woman came up to me and said, "Oh that Karoubi, he is so arrogant. He came in fifth and he dares to show his face in the streets." I said, "Khanum, how could he have come in fifth? There were only four candidates."

I did not go to any of the other demonstrations even though I wanted to. My son said to me, "If you go, I have to come with you. I would be so worried if you went without me." But my son is still studying, and he could lose every chance for a future by going to these demonstrations. Because of that, I had to stay home.

Allah-o Akbar

In our neighborhood, very few people go out at night to say Allah-o Akbar. From 23 apartments in our building, only my son chants. Our neighbor does too. But we live in a neighborhood that is mainly Sepa-Pasdaran. Even though many of them voted for Moussavi – he had three large campaign offices in our neighborhood and a lot of support – they are afraid to chant Allah-o Akbar or to join the demonstration. Many who did, have had their windows broken and their property vandalized. Our neighbors are more nervous than others in Tehran because they are Sepa Pasdaran.

Response to the Recount

I am very disappointed by the decision of the Guardian council to approve the vote. I don't want to go back to work at all, but I have too. I will do everything in my power to make sure that work does not get done.

United 4 Iran, July 25

Join us in organizing a global day of action in solidarity with the Iranian people!

Join us on July 25, 2009 for a rally in your city in support of the Iranian people and in condemnation of the human rights abuses being committed by the Iranian government. Learn how you can get involved by emailing united4iran@gmail.com.http://united4iran.com/

Rampaging Riot Police, Solidarity, Music, and More on Facebook

I've been working on voteforiran.com and have been writing occasional posts there. (Less occasional than here...) I think our readers may be interested in the Facebook Reviews. Here is the most recent. And happy fourth! I hope to be celebrating Iran's independence day soon.

Facebook, July 2-3

I Know How the Caged Bird Flies

The past two days have brought one piece of bad news after another: friends, colleagues, and innocents in prison; loved ones despondent; riot police on rampages. During the last two days much information has been shared on Facebook. Khatami and Mousavi's statements; routes for planned demonstrations; tons of stuff in Persian that takes me way too long to read (Shervin will review those pieces). The past two days, however, was not a time for more images of demonstrators being beaten; it was a time of music and poetry. We were treated to an interview with the great Iranian poet Simin Behbahani on NPR and heard new music from Mohsen Namjoo, among others.

One friend writes that this time has helped her bridge the generation gap that separates her from her parents, aunts, and uncles: "I never thought I would see similar days or make such a strong emotional connection to these lyrics..."

Many Iranians Speak Out on Obama

I wrote about my own wish for an "Ich ben ein Berliner" moment in a previous post that has sparked a lot of discussion. Since then, I have spoken to many people who are demonstrating each day and putting their own lives on the line. They asked me what Obama has been saying about them. I told them that he finds you inspiring and has condemned the violence. "Do you think he should say more?" I asked. Every single one of them told me, "No. He is doing the right thing." I asked, "If you could send one message to Obama what would it be?" and they all answered, "He should never ever recognize the government of Ahmadinejad."

I defer to their wishes.

And btw, I want Iranian diplomats to go to 4th of July celebrations at American embassies. Yes. Why not? As one friend in Iran has repeatedly said, the isolation simply serves to fuel their narrow world view. Travel, she always told me, would only help integrate them into the rest of the world.

(BTW: Great interview on Fresh Air with Karim Sadjadpour.)

Friday Sermon Gives Permission for Bloodbath

Those saying that Khamenei's sermon today was a conciliatory one and a call for calm are living in a dream world. The fact that Ayatollah Khamanei called the millions of people who came to the streets in the past few days are "agents of the West" and calling the election fair and historic is shocking and divisive, but expected.

His unwavering support for Ahmadinejad and the unwillingness to investigate the vote has made it impossible for any compromise to be reached.

This speech was absolutely meant to terrify the Iranian people off the streets and back into their homes. He has now stated that any protest is illegal and that any violence will be the responsibility of the opposition.

His calls for using legal system for protesting the election results are meaningless when those laws have already been circumvented to declare AN the winner. Saying that Iran is a great democracy is also meaningless when any protest is illegal and lethal force is used to crackdown on demonstrators.

Obama, Turn on Your Charm!

I want "Ich Bin Ein Berliner". I want "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall." I want the rhetoric that Obama is so famous for.

I know we can't say "We are with you," because that would be interpreted as an offer of military support as it was by Iraqis who attempted to rebel against Saddam Hussein in the 90s.

I know that diplomacy is a difficult and delicate game that requires a less than straightforward approach to many situations. I have used this space so often to call for diplomacy with Iran.

Ultimately, I know that rhetoric is just rhetoric. That the words of a president do not actually change history even though they become part of it.

If ever there was a time for Obama to turn on his rhetorical charm, it is now. Today at 4 pm there will be demonstrations in 20 cities in Iran. My friends *want to be on the streets.* They are parents, civil servants, accountants, receptionists, and yes students. In the end, with all of the violence, I am not sure that they will show up.

So Obama, turn on your charm. Use your powers of rhetoric to tell Iranians that, while we won't be sending in the marines, our hearts are with you. I know you can do a better job than I can.