Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Study from Terror Free Tomorrow

From the Executive Summary:

...80% of Iranians favor Iran providing full inspections and a guarantee not to develop or possess nuclear weapons in return for outside aid. A majority of
Iranians (52%) also favor the development of nuclear weapons and believe that the people of Iran would live in a safer world if Iran possessed nuclear weapons. However, support for nuclear weapons drops to below 17% if Iran were to receive outside assistance in return for full inspections and a guarantee not to have nuclear weapons.

68% of Iranians also favor normal relations and trade with the United States. In return for normal relations, a majority of Iranians favor recognizing Israel and Palestine as independent states, ending Iranian support for any armed groups inside Iraq, and full transparency by Iran to the United States to ensure there are no Iranian endeavors to develop nuclear weapons.

Yet the most significant finding of our survey for Iran’s present rulers may be the Iranian people’s opposition to their current system of government. 61% of Iranians were willing to tell our pollsters over the phone that they oppose the current Iranian system of government, where the Supreme Leader rules according to religious principles and cannot be chosen or replaced by direct vote of the people.

Even more telling, however, over 79% of Iranians support a democratic system instead, where the Supreme Leader, along with all leaders, can be chosen and replaced by a free and direct vote of the people...

Read the full report by clicking here (it's a pdf file)


Anonymous said...

60.6% response rate with a sampling error of +- 3.1% margin of error @ 95% confidence level. Basically what this means (for those who don't know) is this study is valid. 60.6% response rate is realistic. If the response rate goes below 50%, the survey must be discarded. The 95% confidence level means that if they were to do the same poll again, 95% of the time the responses would fall within 3.1% + or - where they fell this time. Question order is also important and as far as I can tell it looks decent. Finally, the use of CATI polling method and the "Last Birthday" metho was clutch (as I think a face-to-face poll wouldn't have gone as well.). In short, the poll has my approval! Esther, maybe you can fill me in on this, from what the little I've read Iranians will lie face-to-face. Is that right? If it is right, does that apply to phone interviews, too?

Esther said...

Polling Iranians in Iran is always tricky. According to experts, people will respond with what they think you want to hear. This is different from lying. It's just good manners for IRanians.

That said, there were some results that surprised me, but overall it seemed that the results of the poll reflected what I heard while I was there.

Anonymous said...

T.F.T is endorsd by the neo-cons that brought us the 9/11 commision report.... Somehow I think that if these people who create atrosites with immunity can produce the 9/11 commision report, then they could easily serve us this tripe.

Zardinuk said...

Uh, somehow you've leaped from some endorsement by a member of the 9/11 commission to the study being tripe? You are truly hopeless, lad. I see no mention of ANY neo-cons on this page (and by neo-con, I assume you mean those affiliated with the PNAC):

Terror Free Tomorrow: About Us

As Matt pointed out, the study was done responsibly, at least according to the numbers. That says a lot more than your rambling.